Despite intense negotiations led by Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economics Minister Guy Parmelin in Washington, the Swiss government was unable to reach an agreement in the ongoing tariff dispute with the United States. Beginning today, the threatened US tariffs will take effect, resulting in certain Swiss exports being subject to a 39% duty. The tariffs, which also apply to other US trading partners, will be enforced as of today.
Fig. 1: New US tariffs on selected trading partners
Source: The White House, Reuters, smzh ag
Notably, financial markets have so far responded calmly to these significant trade barriers. The major stock indices are trading higher today, continuing this week’s upward trend. This resilience is largely driven by a very strong earnings season, especially in the US and the IT sector, which has temporarily pushed macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties into the background. In addition, market sentiment is supported by reports that President Trump is expected to meet with Russian President Putin in the coming days, fueling hopes for progress toward a possible ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.
It is also worth noting that the current US tariff policy has prompted numerous multinational companies to pledge significant investments in the United States. Many firms are planning to expand their local production capacities and create new jobs in order to benefit from exemptions to the applicable tariffs. This trend is contributing to the strengthening of the US economy and reinforces the ongoing confidence of investors.
Fig. 2: Significant tariff-related corporate commitments in the US
Source: Bloomberg, smzh ag – As of April 1, 2025
Although Trump’s new tariff regime provides a certain level of planning security for many countries and companies, uncertainty remains substantial. In the coming weeks, it is expected that the US President will announce additional tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, strategically important minerals, and other key industrial goods. President Trump’s behavior suggests that he apparently regards these measures as part of an ongoing “reality show,” making further “deals” or additional tariff increases very likely. Furthermore, the legal basis for these tariffs is still under review by US courts, which raises doubts about their durability and enforceability.
The economic impact will depend on many factors that simply cannot be predicted at this point. On the one hand, there is the question of how long these tariffs will actually remain in place, since, based on prior experience, many countries have subsequently been able to secure better agreements. There is therefore still hope in Switzerland, and diplomatic efforts will likely remain in full swing. In addition, many key sectors – such as pharmaceuticals – are (for now) still exempt. However, there is no question that these tariffs will negatively affect the Swiss export industry and, by extension, the country’s broader economic development. Depending on their duration and scope, they could even cause Switzerland to slip into a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), although a deep, prolonged economic downturn is by no means a foregone conclusion.
The prevailing assessment is that the introduction of negative interest rates by the Swiss National Bank would primarily influence the exchange rate, while the overall relief effect on the economy would remain limited. Spotlight is now on the USD/CHF exchange rate. In principle, a weakening Swiss economy should weaken the franc (and thus reduce the need for further rate cuts). However, heightened global risk aversion could reinforce the franc’s status as a safe haven, partially offsetting the downward pressure.
Hasty reactions in the face of an unclear situation can jeopardize long-term investment objectives. As we have repeatedly emphasized throughout the year, we continue to recommend adhering to a carefully considered investment strategy based on diversification and tailored to individual financial goals. Provided these conditions are met, any market corrections may present attractive buying opportunities – particularly for optimizing the average purchase prices of existing positions with a long-term focus.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome of US tariff policies, it is advisable to strategically review allocations to Swiss equities. Swiss stocks recorded a strong start to 2025; however, the relatively low weighting in structural growth segments such as information technology has weighed on their relative performance over the past three months. Although Swiss equities offer a unique combination of stability and solid growth potential, the ongoing technology-driven rally – especially in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) – suggests that the Swiss market could continue to underperform globally in the short term.
Even though Swiss equities remain a cornerstone in a CHF-based portfolio, their strategic role should be reassessed. In addition to increased international diversification, targeted exposure to growth segments could enhance both performance and resilience. Moreover, in the current low-interest-rate environment, quality dividend stocks continue to stand out as attractive investment options for income-oriented investors.
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Der Schweizer Finanzplatz steht nach der Übernahme der Credit Suisse durch die UBS vor einem tiefgreifenden Wandel, der insbesondere Schweizer Unternehmen und vor allem KMUs – das Rückgrat der Schweizer Wirtschaft – betrifft. Diese Analyse beleuchtet die Strategie der neuen UBS, ihre Auswirkungen auf das Firmenkundengeschäft und die Chancen für andere Marktteilnehmer, die entstandene Lücke zu schliessen. Zudem wird der Handlungsbedarf für Schweizer Unternehmen aufgezeigt.
