Resilience despite imbalances
2025 has eloquently demonstrated the remarkable resilience of both the economy and financial markets. Despite political turbulences, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing headlines about crises, global growth did not falter. Quite the opposite is true, as many economies proved surprisingly robust. Looking ahead to 2026, there are strong indications that resilience will remain the defining theme of the macroeconomic environment, though increasingly intertwined with notable imbalances.
At first glance, the initial backdrop is encouraging: consumer demand is solid, household balance sheets are healthy, and corporate earnings are stable, creating a strong basis. Many emerging markets are also better positioned than in previous cycles, with stronger foreign exchange reserves, lower inflation, and more robust public finances. While global growth is not expected to be spectacular, it should remain positive across the major regions. For investors, this represents a constructive starting point.
At the same time, growth is becoming increasingly reliant on a handful of specific drivers: government stimulus measures, major investments in artificial intelligence, and wealth gains that do not reach everyone equally. Geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and transformation driven by digitalization, decarbonization, and demographics further amplify these imbalances. The world has proven more resilient than many anticipated, but it has also grown more complex and fragmented.
For investors, “resilience amid imbalances” means that robust growth does not automatically translate into broad market performance. Selectivity, diversification, and active risk management are becoming ever more critical. In our Investment Outlook 2026, we examine how this mix of resilience and imbalance is impacting the major asset classes. Our aim is to provide guidance in an environment that signals stability, yet, beneath the surface, requires greater differentiation than ever, and to identify concrete investment opportunities for long-term portfolios.
