Bitcoin has been undergoing strategic classification within the global investment universe for years, with the “digital gold” narrative serving as its central reference point.

The launch of institutional spot Bitcoin ETFs led by BlackRock in early 2024 marked the first time this narrative was tested in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Since then, Bitcoin has become much more integrated into macroeconomic allocation and trading strategies and is more sensitive to global funding conditions. Notably, there has been a pronounced linkage to the development of the term premium on ten-year US Treasuries, indicating growing integration into macro-driven positioning strategies among institutional investors.

Gold on a winning streak

Since the second half of 2025, gold has been outshining Bitcoin. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and a persistently tense geopolitical and macroeconomic environment have strengthened gold in its role as an established portfolio hedge.

While Bitcoin was positioned as a macro hedge at times during the first half of last year, its performance in the second half clearly lagged behind gold. This divergence was also evident in the ETF market, with increasing inflows into gold ETFs alongside waning momentum on the Bitcoin side.

Gold leads, Bitcoin is becoming established institutionally

The developments of 2025 highlight the structural demand for real assets. Gold is currently at the forefront, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and the desire for stable-value reserves beyond fiat currencies. The US dollar remains the global reserve currency, but there is continued need for complementary stores of value. Bitcoin fits into this environment. Its role as “digital gold” has not been invalidated; rather, it continues to establish itself institutionally. While gold currently fulfills the core defensive function, even into 2026, Bitcoin remains a long-term, growth-oriented real asset.

For investors, this is not an either-or question. Gold and Bitcoin serve different purposes and can together be part of a diversified portfolio.